During an electrifying speech to a fifth grade class last year, the process of how our President is elected became a focal point of heated discussion. "Popular vote does not necessarily win the Presidential election," I tried to explain. "Electoral college? My dad says that is a bunch of nonsense," said one fiery eyed young Democrat in training. But the fact is, the magic number for Obama is 18. Obama needs to add 18 electoral votes to the 252 won by John Kerry four years ago. If he does, he will be enjoying one heck of an inauguration.
How likely is it that Obama picks up 18 electoral votes? Peering through Obama's window of opportunity, the answer is apparent. If Obama wins Iowa (7) and Missouri (11) without losing any Kerry states, Democrats are dancing on the White House Lawn. Even more likely states for Obama may be Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado. Another strong possibility is winning Virginia, which Democrats typically do not win.
On the other hand, McCain will try to target Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, and New Hampshire which voted Democratic in the last election. If McCain loses Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa (all Republican states in 2004), then McCain and Obama would tie at 269 electoral votes. In the case of a tie what happens? The House of Representatives votes, with each state delegation having one vote. Since Democrats control more state delegations than Republicans, Obama wins. Will we have a President elected who does not win the majority of the popular vote? It may all depend on who each candidate selects as their Vice Presidential running mate. So far, neither side has contacted Legal Pub...
Update 11-6-08: Barack Obama wins in a near electoral landslide!
U.S. President - Electoral College
Obama (D) - 349
McCain (R) - 147 270 votes needed for presidency
Obama (D) - 349
McCain (R) - 147 270 votes needed for presidency
Popular vote - 48 states reporting
McCain (R) 46% 55,386,310
Obama (D) 52% 62,443,218
Barr (I) 0% 480,180
Nader (I) 1% 641,044
Posts
24 comments:
I would rather see a ticket of Ms. Calabaza and L.P. then either of these two candidates and any one else!
Shell
Shell!
you are a trip! How about you? I don't know many with as much common sense as you. Yeah, I agree we don't have a candidate to be all excited about but we have to choose with what we got. I hope they do contact you LP and you set them straight . . . Hey, I hope all you folks in Indiana's flood area are doing well, been thinking about you. . .
Obama doesn't care too much about Indina now that he won the primary. He will concentrate on Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.
McCain death scowl
I'm curious why you guys arent excited about Barack.
Is he too charismatic? Too bright? Or is he too black?
secrets,
my answer is: too left
Secrets:
Obama is very charismatic. My mother thinks he is fantastic. For me, he is too liberal on foreign affairs. I think, like Jimmy Carter, he is a threat to our national security.
Nothing to do with Race. I would vote for Colon Powell in a heart beat.
Jon P.
Colin Powell, former chief of staff, would have my vote as well.
Colin Powell gets the Legal Pub endorsement as well. Incidentally Secret, race is never an issue here. As a native Indian, J.F. would never allow it. Ms. Calabaza never shades her view point according to race and L.P. never raises the helmet shield visor so that no stereotypes can be inferred..
I really enjoy your blog Legal.
I'm glad to hear that race isnt an issue here. Thats refreshing.
Unfortunately, I think it is an issue for a select few that leave comments. (ex: The Hartford Story)
I dont like to assume anything, so I ask questions. Its all in the spirit of clearly understanding where people are coming from.
If I didnt ask the question, I never would have known that most of you endorse Colin Powell.
Now here's a topic I can relate to, politics.
Colin Powell, he gets my vote over Calabaza, Obama, McCain and LP. But he won't run, so much for "public servants."
The general election is a race between a true liberal and maverick moderate. Conservatives might stay home unless Obama's tax plans scare them to the polls.
Out here in California, it's Obama country with yard signs everywhere. He's a rock star, not a candidate for President.
The most important question is, how will Bill Clinton get back to the oval office, if Hillary can't be the Veep?
The founding fathers created the electoral college because they did not trust the general populous to elect the chief executive. It has evolved into a very strange system, where someone can loose the popular vote and still win the election. If someone tried to impose the electoral college system today to replace a popular vote system, they would be called crazy. Something to think about.
Yup, Obama is likely to be the next President. Now, while I support Obama, I do not view others as racist merely because they do not support him. This is liberal v. maverick conservative as Ron points out. In the end, it may be a barn burner on election night with the election coming down to a few key western states!
Helen
Obama has a nice mamma... Michelle is hot!
Jimmie
Aww, you guys are all racists. If you don't like Obama, you have to be a racist, it's as simple as that. If you support Bush, you must be stupid.
That is the campaign rhetoric, you are for Obama or you are a racist. If Hillary had got the bid, you are for Hillary or you are a sexist. If you are not for McCain, you are anti vet.
I am voting for McCain because he is the lesser of evils in my view.
Jon
Rep. Dan Boren, Oklahoma's lone Democrat in Congress, told the A. P. that Obama is "the most liberal senator," and said he has to listen to the wishes of his own constituents.
"We're much more conservative," Boren said of his rural district. "I've got to reflect my district. No one means more to me than the people who elected me. I have to listen to them," Boren added. CNN has confirmed the quotes.
Boren also said Obama's record "does not reflect working in a bipartisan fashion." Nevertheless, he will still vote for Obama at the party's convention in August.
the dictionary describes a liberal as
open-minded or tolerant, esp. free of or not bound by traditional or conventional ideas, values, etc.
sounds good to me, i must be a liberal.
Coriguy, how about pondering other words that may fit Obama such as fibber? Consider:
Obama's Not Exactly's:
1.) Selma Got Me Born - NOT EXACTLY, Obama was born in 1961. Selma had no effect on your birth, as Selma was in 1965. (Google see 'Obama Selma' for his full March 4, 2007 speech and articles about its various untruths.)
2.) Father Was A Goat Herder - NOT EXACTLY, he was a privileged, well educated youth, who went on to work with the Kenyan Government.
3.) Father Was A Proud Freedom Fighter. No, was part of a corupt and violent government in Kenya.
4.) My Family Has Strong Ties To African Freedom - No, your cousin Raila Odinga created mass violence in attempting to overturn a legitimate election in 2007 in Kenya. It is the first widespread violence in decades. The current government is pro-American but Odinga wants to overthrow it and establish Muslim Sharia law. Your half-brother, Abongo Obama, is Odinga's follower. You interrupted your New Hampshire campaigning to speak to Odinga on the phone. Check out the following link for verification of that....and for more.Obama's cousin Odinga in Kenya ran for president and tried to get Sharia Muslim law in place there. When Odinga lost the elections, his followers have burned Christians' homes and then burned men, women and children alive in a Christian church where they took shelter.. Obama SUPPORTED his cousin before the election process here started. Google Obama and Odinga and see what you get. No one wants to know the truth.
5.) My Grandmother Has Always Been A Christian - NOT EXACTLY, she does her daily Salat prayers at 5am according to her own interviews. Not to mention, Christianity wouldn't allow her to have been one of 14 wives to 1 man.
6.) My Name is African Swahili - NOT EXACTLY, your name is Arabic and 'Baraka' (from which Barack came) means 'blessed' in that language. Hussein is also Arabic and so is Obama.Barack Hussein Obama is not half black. If elected, he would be the first Arab-American President, not the first black President. Barack Hussein Obama is 50% Caucasian from his mother's side and 43.75% Arabic and 6.25% African Negro from his father's side. While Barack Hussein Obama's father was from Kenya, his father's family was mainly Arabs.. Barack Hussein Obama's father was only 12.5% African Negro and 87.5% Arab (his father's birth certificate even states he's Arab, not African Negro). From....and for more....go to.....http://www.arcadeathome.com/newsboy.phtml?Barack_Hussein_Obama_-_Arab-American,_only_6.25% African Negro.
7.) I Never Practiced Islam - NOT EXACTLY, you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years, until your wife made you change, so you could run for office.4-3-08 Article 'Obama was 'quite religious in Islam'' http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=60559
8.) My School In Indonesia Was Christian - NOT EXACTLY, you were registered as Muslim there and got in trouble in Koranic Studies for making faces (check your own book).& lt; B R>February 28, 2008. Kristoff from the New York Times a year ago: Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it'll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as 'one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.' This is just one example of what Pamela is talking about when she says 'Obama's narrative is being altered, enhanced and manipulated to whitewash troubling facts.'
9.) I Was Fluent In Indonesian - NOT EXACTLY, not one teacher says you could speak the language.
10.) Because I Lived In Indonesia, I Have More Foreign Experience - NOT EXACTLY, you were there from the ages of 6 to 10, and couldn't even speak the language. What did you learn, how to study the Koran and watch cartoons.
11.) I Am Stronger On Foreign Affairs - NOT EXACTLY, except for Africa (surprise) and the Middle East (big ger sur pr ise), you have never been anywhere else on the planet and thus have NO experience with our closest allies.
12.) I Blame My Early Drug Use On Ethnic Confusion - NOT EXACTLY, you were quite content in high school to be Barry Obama, no mention of Kenya and no mention of struggle to identify - your classmates said you were just fine.
13.)An Ebony Article Moved Me To Run For Office - NOT EXACTLY, Ebony has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.
14.) A Life Magazine Article Changed My Outlook On Life - NOT EXACTLY, Life has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.
15.) I Won't Run On A National Ticket In '08 - NOT EXACTLY, here you are, despite saying, live on TV, that you would not have enough experience by then, and you are all about having experience first.
16.) Voting 'Present' is Common In Illinois Senate - NOT EXACTLY, they are common for YOU, but n ot many oth ers have 130 NO VOTES.
17.) Oops, I Misvoted - NOT EXACTLY, only when caught by church groups and Democrats, did you beg to change your misvote.
18.) I Was A Professor Of Law - NOT EXACTLY, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
19.) I Was A Constitutional Lawyer - NOT EXACTLY, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.
20.) Without Me, There Would Be No Ethics Bill - NOT EXACTLY, you didn't write it, introduce it, change it, or create it.
21.) The Ethics Bill Was Hard To Pass - NOT EXACTLY, it took just 14 days from start to finish.
22.) I Wrote A Tough Nuclear Bill - NOT EXACTLY, your bill was rejected by your own party for its pandering and lack of all regulation - mainly because of your Nuclear donor, Exelon, from which David Axelrod came.
23.) I Have Released My State Records - NOT EXACTLY, as of March, 2008, state bills you sponsored or voted for have yet to be released, exposing all the special interests pork hidden within .
24. ) I Took On The Asbestos Altgeld Gardens Mess - NOT EXACTLY, you were part of a large group of people who remedied Altgeld Gardens. You failed to mention anyone else but yourself, in your books.
25.) My Economics Bill Will Help America - NOT EXACTLY, your 111 economic policies were just combined into a proposal which lost 99-0, and even YOU voted against your own bill.
26.) I Have Been A Bold Leader In Illinois - NOT EXACTLY, even your own supporters claim to have not seen BOLD action on your part.
27.) I Passed 26 Of My Own Bills In One Year - NOT EXACTLY, they were not YOUR bills, but rather handed to you, after their creation by a fellow Senator, to assist you in a future bid for higher office.
28.) No One on my campaign contacted Canada about NAFTA - NOT EXACTLY, the Canadian Government issued the names and a memo of the conversation your campaign had with them.
29.) I Am Tough On Terrorism - NOT EXACTLY, you missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction off Israel.
30.) I Want All Votes To Count - NOT EXACTLY, you said let the delegates decide.
31.) I Want Americans To Decide - NOT EXACTLY, you prefer caucuses that limit the vote, confuse the voters, force a public vote, and only operate during small windows of time.
32.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate - NOT EXACTLY, you passed 26, most of which you didn't write yourself.
33.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics - NOT EXACTLY, you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer from running against you.
34.) I Don't Take PAC Money - NOT EXACTLY, you take loads of it.
35.) I don't Have Lobbyists - NOT EXACTLY, you have over 47 lobbyists, and counting.
36.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad - NOT EXACTLY, your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon.
37.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq - NOT EXACTLY, you weren't in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time.
38.) I Have Always Supported Universal Health Care - NOT EXACTL Y, your plan leaves us all to pay for the 15,000,000 who don't have to buy it
If Obama was being interviewed by Ricky Riccardo, he would have SOME EXPLAINING TO DO!
Is Obama slippery or just clueless?
I've said it for a long time. (Back when Hillary was thought to have a chance to win...) I've done the math. Bayh gives the Democrats Indiana. These 11 electoral votes will carry the Democrats to victory.
For our Republican friends, let's hope math was not one of Obama's better subjects.
Delegate math must not be one of Obamas better subjects. Unless Bayh is given a high ranking cabinet or other visible position, expect Indiana delegates to go with McCain.
Michelle and Kennedy as openers... Oboy! I had to turn the channel.
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